The Indian Metereological Department ( IMD ) releases Extended Heat range predictions periodically. As per this year, states in North, North-East, East and few parts of west experiences hot weather than usual. Where as, central and southern states experience a less severe summer than the rest.
The IMD issues this prediction based on February’s initial weather conditions and using the reference of its previous summer forecasts issued annually between 2003-2018.
The IMD officials confirms that nights could be warmer than usual during this season mainly over the southern states. D Sivanand Pai, head, Climate Research and Services at IMD, Pune said, “This may be due to the possibility of moisture conditions created locally or rainfall activity which leads to warm and hot nights. “
When the maximum temperatures increases above 4 degrees from normal recorded temperature at a given location, it is said to be under a heatwave. It is hard to predict the exact number of heatwave events, and the phenomenon is common along with the Core Heatwave Zone (CHZ) areas every summer. It includes Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, West Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Vidarbha in Maharashtra, parts of Gangetic West Bengal, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.
Inspite of this scorching summer, Monsoon will be normal due to the La Nina effect.Just like higher temperatures are associated with El Nino ocean currents, La Nina is a Pacific Ocean phenomenon when the sea surface temperatures along its central and equatorial belt remain cooler than normal. The former – during winters gives India warmer winters and during summers, gives scorched land with low humidity and higher temperatures. The latter, La Nina during summer brings an above-normal monsoon in India.
Furthermore, At the plains, a “heatwave” is when the maximum temperature is more than 40 degrees Celsius, and at least 4.5 notches above normal. And, A “severe” heatwave is declared if departure from normal temperature is more than 6.5 degrees Celsius, according to the IMD.
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